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20 February 2010

كاتب سوري مستقل لا ينتمي لاي حزب او تيار سياسي او ديني

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Arab Times Blogs
Syria is not Libya

 In the aftermath of the resounding and drastic fall of Iraqi regime in April, 2003, as a result of an international Military coalition, led by U.S, that could enter Baghdad, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi suffered, then, a state of panic, shock and hysteria. In fact, president George Bush Jr. military operation's name was the "Shock and Awe". It seemed that the shock and awe could affect the panic-stricken Colonel. He, immediately, dismantled his nuclear, chemical and biological military programs, and shipped them, on his own expense, to the United States of America, thinking that, by doing that, he was securing himself, and his closed dictatorial tribal regime, a similar fate of late president Saddam Hussein, putting, at the same time, all his eggs in the Western basket.

 Delivering everything to the west, he kept, only, to be frank and honest, for himself his "Green" underwear, safe and undelivered. Turning, also, his back to the whole world's other super powers. He left no such other influential strategic paper, or any other means of pressure, in his hands to use in future, or in times of crisis. He became a naked, lonely burned political paper in a pile of deserted useless papers in ME. He, then, expressed, openly, his deep fears, concerns and apprehensions about that similar fate, in his famous televised speech, during the twentieth Arab Summit, held in Damascus in 2008, addressing Arab leaders by saying: "How do you allow U.S arresting and hanging a colleague of you, your turn is coming one by one" .

 In fact, he was predicting his own end, and, perhaps, foretelling his own turn, when he put his all eggs in the West's basket, and betting on their friendship. His well-remembered, nowadays, funny-colored tent, as well as Libya, in general, turned into a favorite destination for all Western companies, personnel, political leaders diplomats, and unidentified others searching for wealth and adventures, with, as supposed, an army of intelligence agents, behind those all, who were studying and assessing everything in Libya paving the way for the favorable moment to come. Everybody knows the rest of the Colonel's clown story. Many, in this amusing time of so-called Arab Spring joke, are trying to liken Libya to Syria. In fact, we are, here, completely, and wholly, in front of different case and data. Syria, very briefly, could know and manage its own Strategic status. First, Syria has never been a base, or passage to Western intelligence or busy diplomacy, and it seems apparently, a closed vague stronghold to them. Its relations with the west were one of independent and man-to-man style ones, unlike its Arab counterparts which seem to be ones of subordination and dependency.

 Syria is not alone in this confrontation. It is a part of a strategic regional system, that is very difficult to displace or defeat. It lies inside a strategic long pocket which extends from Southern Lebanon, and Palestine to Tehran, and it is very hard to dismantle or enter. It has been, for decades, weaving strong ties with effective regional countries such as Iran, and other ones, on world level, like Russia and China which forbade, up till now, any serious trial towards cloning a Libyan scenario in Syria. One must not forget Russian Military Base in Tartous, the coastal Syrian port. Any logistic Russian exodus from Syria will mean, in effect, one, final and last exodus from the whole ME. Which means disastrous, strategic, not on the cards, and huge national security defeat for Russians.

 Moreover, Syria is still having a strategic deterring force manifested by a massive rocket arsenal that no wise strategists can ever ignore when thinking of playing in the Syrian equation. In fact, Hezbollah, a minor regional resistant organization, partly, used less-in-effect kinds of these rockets during 2006 war with Israel which made, for the first time, a kind of horror balance with the Jewish state. Now one might think, in this regard, of the disastrous outcomes, for all parties concerned, in case of an all-out confrontation in the region.

 More importantly, there is not, yet, this U.N legal cover for any military action against Syria like that which justified NATO's air-strikes against Libya. U.N Security Council has been, for weeks, relentlessly, but in vain, trying to issue such a balanced moderate resolution regarding Syria, excluding, absolutely, any possibility for military intervention. Logistically, Syrian Army has proved, for nearly seven months, to be one of the strongest, most disciplined and most integrated and unified one in the world.

 It launched qualitative and successful operations against terrorist armed gangs' strongholds, dismantling insurgents' hideouts and arresting most of them, regaining peace, order and stability to many cities, unlike the Libyan case where the Libyan army collapsed in the early days of the crisis. On a paralleling side, Syrian veteran well experienced and trained security organs have helped foiling many schemes to undermine Syria's internal stability. These all were factors of strength and ability to stop the multi-forked aggression against Syria under the title of the so-called Arab-Spring. It seems, finally, that American staunchest allies and friends are the only ones who are being, easily, toppled and fallen down every time, from the Shah and Saddam Husseim(1), passing by Mubarak and Bin Ali, not ending with Major General Saleh and Colonel Qadhaffi.

 those are the ones likely to fall. Castro, Kim Il Jong, Chavez, Ahmadi Najad are all America's bitter enemies, but they are still in power scolding and mocking Americans The very expressive lesson extracted here is telling us: "put your eggs everywhere you wish, but never think of the American basket." . One might add another bitter and painful truth, that is: "if you want to be safe and secure, keep away from West and Americans". (1) Who can ever forget the intimate and hot hugs and visits to Saddam Hussein by Donald Rumsfield, ex-Secretary of State, *Syrian Liberal and Secular writer







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